Gold Physical Market Brief — September 25, 2026

Executive summary

Physical delivery activity in GC COMEX Gold futures slowed into the tail end of the September contract cycle, with just 11 notices issued and stopped on September 25, 2026. Month-to-date (MTD) deliveries for the September 2026 contract reached 4,183 lots (418,300 troy oz), reflecting steady absorption across the month compared to the peak active-month volume seen in August. Meanwhile, speculative positioning remains heavily net long, showing robust paper appetite alongside orderly physical settlements.

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Delivery intentions (today + MTD context)

• Latest Daily Volume (Sept 25, 2026): 11 contracts issued and stopped (settlement price: $4,286.20/oz).
• Delivery Schedule: Intent date September 25, 2026, with final delivery scheduled for September 29, 2026.
• Month-to-Date (MTD) Cumulative: 4,183 contracts.

Recent Delivery Trend Context

• Delivery issuance has tapered off sharply in the final week of September after moderate mid-month surges:
  • Sept 24: 107 contracts ($4,263.00)
  • Sept 23: 198 contracts ($4,281.30)
  • Sept 22: 340 contracts ($4,338.90)
  • Sept 18: 303 contracts ($4,385.90)
  • Sept 01: 429 contracts ($4,348.00)
• September serves as an interim delivery cycle following the major August 2026 contract expiration, which concluded with over 20,343 contracts delivered. Delivery absorption in September has remained orderly without delivery failure or rollover stress.

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Warehouse stocks

• COMEX warehouse stock data is not reported in the current exchange feed for this reporting cycle.

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COT cross-check

• Reporting Date: September 25, 2026
• Total Open Interest: 412,800 contracts
• Managed Money: 135,699 longs vs. 8,310 shorts (Net long: +127,389 contracts)
• Commercial (Producer/Merchant): 17,719 longs vs. 44,496 shorts (Net short: -26,777 contracts)

Physical vs. Positioning Divergence: Managed Money holds an overwhelmingly one-sided net long stance (over 16:1 long-to-short ratio), representing ~30.9% of total open interest. In contrast, physical delivery demand has moderated toward the end of the month (11 lots today). While paper positioning reflects aggressive bullish conviction, the physical market is exhibiting standard late-cycle delivery tapering rather than a physical squeeze.

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Risks and watchpoints

• Contract Roll & Concentration: Monitor open interest distribution as market participants position for upcoming active delivery cycles.
• Speculative Overhang: With Managed Money net longs at 127,389 contracts against low short exposure (8,310 lots), paper positioning is vulnerable to rapid liquidation if price momentum stalls below the $4,300/oz threshold.
• Physical Settlement Pace: Track initial notice day volumes for the next major delivery contract to assess whether physical commercial demand keeps pace with speculative expansion.