Gold Physical Market Brief: 2026-08-31

Executive summary

Physical market activity is shifting to the September GC contract as the August delivery cycle concludes. Today saw the first significant delivery intentions for September, with 295 contracts issued. This follows a very active August contract which saw over 20,000 contracts delivered month-to-date. Speculative positioning remains heavily bullish, creating a dynamic where the strength of physical offtake for the new front month will be a key variable to watch against high paper market expectations.

Delivery intentions (today + MTD context)

On the COMEX exchange, the delivery process for the September 2026 contract has begun with a notable start.

• Today's Activity: 295 contracts were issued and stopped for the SEPTEMBER 2026 COMEX 100 Gold Futures contract.
• Month-to-Date (MTD): This brings the MTD total for the new front-month September contract to 2,047 contracts.
• Context: This marks the transition from the August contract, which saw very high delivery volumes throughout its cycle (e.g., reaching 20,343 contracts by August 28th). The initial volume for September provides a baseline to monitor physical demand in the current delivery period.

Warehouse stocks

CME Group does not publish daily warehouse stock levels for COMEX futures. Analysis must therefore rely on delivery intentions as the primary indicator of physical settlement demand.

COT cross-check

The latest CFTC Commitments of Traders (COT) data as of August 28th shows a strong bullish tilt from speculators, which contrasts with the nascent physical delivery activity in the new contract month.

• Managed Money: Speculators hold a significant net long position, with 159,819 long contracts against only 15,072 short contracts.
• Commercials: As is typical, producer/merchants hold a net short position (16,861 long vs 51,419 short), indicating hedging activity.
• Divergence Watch: The heavy speculative net long positioning reflects strong bullish sentiment in the paper market. While this was supported by the high physical deliveries in the August contract, the key test will be whether September's physical delivery volume can sustain a similar pace to justify this optimism.

Risks and watchpoints

• September Delivery Pace: The primary watchpoint is the daily volume of delivery notices for the September contract. A significant drop-off from the levels seen in August could suggest that physical demand is waning at current price levels, creating a potential disconnect with the bullish paper market.
• Open Interest vs. Deliveries: As the September delivery period progresses, the ratio of contracts delivered to the remaining open interest for that month will be a critical indicator of physical tightness.
• Speculative Positioning: A continuation of the extreme net long positioning by Managed Money without a corresponding follow-through in physical delivery could make the market vulnerable to a sentiment shift or long liquidation.