Gold Physical Market Brief: 2026-08-03

Executive summary

Physical delivery for the August COMEX Gold contract has begun, with 190 new intentions filed. This brings the month-to-date total to a substantial 14,154 contracts, indicating consistent demand for physical settlement. This physical offtake appears aligned with the strongly net-long positioning held by Managed Money, suggesting conviction behind the paper longs. The key watchpoint will be whether the pace of August deliveries accelerates from this initial level.

Delivery intentions (today + MTD context)

Delivery activity for the August 2026 contract has commenced after a two-day pause at the end of last week. - Today's Intentions: A total of 190 contracts were issued and stopped for delivery against the August contract. - Month-to-Date (MTD): The total number of contracts settled by physical delivery so far this month now stands at 14,154. - Contract Context: Today's activity marks the start of the delivery cycle for the August contract, following the conclusion of the July delivery period.

Warehouse stocks

CME does not publish daily warehouse stock levels for its COMEX 100 Gold Futures contract. Therefore, direct analysis of daily inventory flows is not possible from this data.

COT cross-check

The latest positioning data (as of July 31) shows a significant bullish stance from speculators, which is consistent with the strong physical delivery demand. - Managed Money Net Position: Speculative funds held a large net-long position of +119,795 contracts (135,093 long vs. 15,298 short). - Positioning vs. Physical Flow: The strong demand for physical delivery, evidenced by over 14,000 contracts standing for delivery MTD, aligns with the heavily bullish paper positioning from money managers. There is no significant divergence at this time.

Risks and watchpoints

• Pace of August Deliveries: Today's 190 contracts represent the first delivery day for the active August contract. The pace of subsequent delivery notices will be a key indicator of immediate physical demand.
• Total Delivery Volume: The MTD total of 14,154 contracts is already robust. Monitoring how this figure evolves through the August delivery period will be crucial for assessing the strength of physical offtake.
• Concentrated Long Positioning: While currently aligned with physical flow, the large net-long position held by Managed Money could become a risk factor. Any shift in macroeconomic sentiment could trigger a rapid liquidation of these paper positions, potentially creating a disconnect with the physical market.