Gold Physical Market Brief: 2026-07-23

Executive summary

Physical delivery activity for the JULY 2026 Gold contract has slowed to a near halt, with only 8 new contracts posted today. While the month-to-date total remains robust at 12,870 contracts, the sharp decline in daily notices from levels seen last week suggests immediate physical demand is tapering off. This slowdown in physical offtake contrasts with the significant net long positioning held by Managed Money as of the latest COT report, highlighting a potential divergence between paper market sentiment and near-term physical settlement.

Delivery intentions (today + MTD context)

• Today's Activity: For the JULY 2026 contract, 8 lots were issued and stopped, a significant drop from recent activity.
• Month-to-Date (MTD): The cumulative delivery total for the July contract now stands at 12,870 lots.
• Trend Context: Today's 8 contracts represent a sharp deceleration in delivery activity. This compares to 85 contracts yesterday (July 22), 76 on July 21, and a much larger 216 contracts on July 20. The bulk of the month's deliveries occurred earlier, with the current pace indicating the delivery cycle for this contract month is winding down.

Warehouse stocks

CME Group does not publish daily warehouse stock levels for COMEX Gold. Physical inventory analysis must rely on other sources or on the delivery intention data itself as a proxy for physical movement.

COT cross-check

The latest CFTC data (as of July 17) shows a significant bullish tilt from speculators, which contrasts with the recent slowdown in physical deliveries. - Managed Money: Net long 120,779 contracts (136,905 long vs. 16,126 short). - Commercials (Producers/Merchants): Net short 19,149 contracts (15,840 long vs. 34,989 short). - Divergence: The strong net long speculative position suggests an expectation of higher prices, but the sharp fall-off in daily physical delivery notices this week could indicate that demand for immediate physical metal is waning at current price levels.

Risks and watchpoints

• Slowing Physical Demand: The primary watchpoint is the dramatic slowdown in daily delivery notices. While the MTD total is strong, the drop to just 8 contracts signals that the appetite to take physical delivery for the active month has been largely satisfied. Continued low daily numbers could weigh on sentiment.
• Positioning vs. Physical Flow: The large net long position held by Managed Money appears disconnected from the immediate, day-to-day physical flow. If this speculative length does not see confirmation from renewed physical buying or price momentum, it could be vulnerable to a rapid unwind.
• End-of-Month Activity: Monitor whether this is a typical end-of-month lull or the start of a more meaningful trend of weakening physical demand. Any unexpected resurgence in delivery notices would be a significant signal.