Gold Physical Market Brief: 2026-07-15

Executive summary

Physical delivery activity for the July Gold contract resumed today after a quiet session, with 306 new intentions filed. This brings the month-to-date total to a robust 11,606 contracts, signaling continued demand for physical settlement. This strong physical offtake is occurring alongside a heavily net-long speculative position, as shown in the latest COT data. While not a direct divergence, the large paper long position represents a key risk if market sentiment were to shift against the backdrop of solid physical demand.

Delivery intentions (today + MTD context)

Delivery activity for the July 2026 COMEX 100 Gold Futures contract restarted after a pause, with 306 contracts issued and stopped for delivery.

• Today's Activity (July 15): 306 contracts issued/stopped.
• Prior Day (July 14): 0 contracts issued/stopped.
• Month-to-Date (MTD) Total: The cumulative total for the July contract has now reached 11,606 contracts.

The resumption of deliveries maintains the strong trend for the month, suggesting persistent demand for physical gold through the futures market mechanism.

Warehouse stocks

CME Group does not publish daily COMEX-level warehouse stock reports for Gold in this data feed. Therefore, a direct analysis of inventory flows is not possible from this data.

COT cross-check

The latest CFTC data, as of July 10, 2026, provides a positioning snapshot to contrast with the physical flow.

• Managed Money: Speculators held a significant net long position of 116,161 contracts (134,941 long vs. 18,780 short).
• Producers/Merchants (Commercials): Commercials held a net short position of -20,986 contracts, typical of hedging activity.
• Open Interest: Total open interest stood at 371,776 contracts.

The robust physical delivery demand seen through mid-July is occurring while speculative funds are already heavily positioned on the long side. This indicates that bullish sentiment in the paper market is currently supported by physical offtake.

Risks and watchpoints

• Positioning Risk: The large net long managed money position is a key risk factor. A rapid unwinding of these positions, driven by a change in macroeconomic sentiment, could pressure prices downwards even as physical demand appears solid.
• Sustained Physical Demand: The key watchpoint is whether the month-to-date delivery total continues to climb through the remainder of the delivery period. A sustained high level of deliveries would reinforce the signal of underlying physical market tightness.