Gold Physical Market Brief: July 9, 2026

Executive Summary

Physical delivery activity for the July contract was minimal today, with just 7 new intentions processed. This brings the month-to-date total to a substantial 9,554 contracts. The low volume of current activity suggests the bulk of the July delivery cycle may be complete. A cross-check with the latest available CFTC data (as of June 26) reveals a significant net long position held by Managed Money, creating a potential divergence between strong speculative bullishness and weakening immediate physical delivery demand.

Delivery Intentions (Today + MTD Context)

• Today's Activity: A total of 7 contracts for the JULY 2026 COMEX 100 Gold Futures were issued and stopped today, July 9, 2026. The settlement price for these deliveries was $4,130.60.
• Month-to-Date (MTD) Volume: The delivery process for the July contract has seen a total of 9,554 contracts delivered month-to-date. Today's activity represents a very small fraction of this total, indicating the delivery cycle for the front month is likely maturing.

Warehouse Stocks

CME Group does not publish daily warehouse stock levels for COMEX Gold. Therefore, an analysis of inventory changes is not possible from this data.

COT Cross-Check

The latest CFTC Commitment of Traders (COT) data, for the week ending June 26, 2026, provides a positioning snapshot to compare against physical flows. - Managed Money: Speculators were heavily bullish, holding a net long position of 115,395 contracts (131,102 long vs. 15,707 short). - Positioning vs. Physical Flow: The strong net long speculative position contrasts with the very low level of physical delivery intentions seen today (7 contracts). This suggests that conviction in the paper market is not currently being matched by aggressive demand for immediate physical settlement.

Risks and Watchpoints

• Speculative vs. Physical Divergence: The primary watchpoint is the gap between the large bullish bet from Managed Money (as of late June) and the tapering physical delivery volume as the July cycle winds down. A continuation of low delivery demand could challenge the bullish paper-market thesis.
• Data Lag: Note the lag between the positioning data (June 26) and today's physical report (July 9). Speculative sentiment could have shifted over the past two weeks. The next COT report will be critical to see if positioning has moderated.
• Lack of Trend Data: The provided data does not include recent historical delivery days, making it difficult to assess if today's low volume is a sharp drop-off or part of a gradual decline.