Gasoline RBOB Futures & Options Commitments of Traders: Week Ending June 26, 2026

Executive summary

For the week ending June 26, 2026, speculative sentiment in Gasoline RBOB futures grew more bullish, with Managed Money increasing their net long position despite choppy price action. This was driven by the addition of both new long and short positions, indicating conviction but also some hedging. Commercials, or Producer/Merchants, slightly increased their large net short position, continuing to use the market to hedge. Overall market participation, as measured by Open Interest, saw a modest increase but remains well below levels seen earlier in the year, suggesting a less liquid environment.

Positioning

• Managed Money (Speculators): This group holds a significant net long position of +71,095 contracts (82,306 long vs. 11,211 short). This is a strongly bullish stance, though it remains below the peak net long position of over +88,000 contracts seen in late February.
• Producer/Merchant (Commercials): These participants hold a large net short position of -86,498 contracts (78,117 long vs. 164,615 short). This reflects substantial producer hedging, but is less extreme than their peak net short position of over -118,000 contracts, also from late February.
• Swap Dealers: This category holds a net long position of +25,394 contracts, indicating they are providing liquidity and likely taking the other side of commercial short hedges.

Flows and week-over-week changes

• Managed Money: The speculative net long position increased by +3,675 contracts. This was the result of a "two-way flow," with the addition of +5,942 long contracts and +2,267 short contracts. This indicates that while the overall bias was bullish, some funds were also initiating new shorts.
• Producer/Merchant: Commercials slightly increased their net short position by 926 contracts. This was a result of reducing long positions (-4,421) more than short positions (-3,495), suggesting a decrease in gross exposure but a slight increase in net hedging.
• Swap Dealers: Increased their net long position by +1,708 contracts, driven by the addition of +2,360 longs against a smaller addition of +652 shorts.

Commercials vs speculators

The classic positioning dynamic is firmly in place: - Speculators (Managed Money) are the primary holders of the net long position, betting on a price increase. Their gross long position of 82,306 contracts makes up 26.0% of total open interest. - Commercials (Producer/Merchant) are the primary holders of the net short position, hedging their physical product against a price decrease. Their gross short position of 164,615 contracts represents a dominant 52.1% of the market's total open interest. - The magnitude of these opposing positions is significant, but neither group is at the most extreme levels observed in the historical data provided.

Open interest and participation

• Open Interest: Total open interest increased by 5,691 contracts to 316,160. This rise indicates new capital flowed into the market during the reporting week.
• Participation Trend: While OI rose this week, it is substantially lower than the peak of over 469,000 contracts seen in early February. This multi-month decline suggests a significant reduction in overall market participation, which can sometimes lead to increased volatility.
• Trader Counts: The bullish conviction among speculators is widespread, with 65 traders holding long positions versus only 14 holding shorts. On the commercial side, 81 participants are short (hedgers) versus 65 who are long.
• Concentration: The market's short side is slightly more concentrated than the long side. The 4 largest traders hold 12.7% of the net short position, compared to 9.2% for the 4 largest longs. This is typical, as a smaller number of large producers often dominate the hedging landscape.

Price context

The as-of date for this report was Tuesday, June 23rd, 2026. - The price of the front-month contract saw a notable decline during the reporting week, moving from a close of 2.9996 on Monday, June 22nd, to 2.9431 on Tuesday, June 23rd. The price continued to fall to 2.8691 on Wednesday before rebounding. - Despite this price weakness, Managed Money increased their net bullish exposure. This suggests that speculators viewed the price dip as a buying opportunity or believe the longer-term trend remains upward.

Risks and watchpoints

• Crowded Speculative Long: The Managed Money net long position of +71,095 contracts is a crowded trade. A negative shift in market fundamentals or sentiment could trigger a rapid liquidation of these positions, putting significant downward pressure on prices.
• Producer Selling Pressure: The large commercial net short position implies that producers find current price levels attractive for hedging. Any further price rallies are likely to be met with additional selling from this group, which could cap the market's upside potential.
• Lower Overall Liquidity: The significant drop in open interest from the highs in Q1 is a critical factor. The current market is operating with less overall capital, which could amplify price swings on any given news or flow.
• Uncertainty in Flows: The addition of both long and short positions by Managed Money suggests a lack of uniform conviction. A shift towards decisive, one-sided buying or selling would be a stronger signal for future price direction.

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss.