Gasoline RBOB Futures COT Report: Week Ending June 5, 2026

Executive summary

This report covers positioning in the NYMEX Gasoline RBOB futures market for the week ending June 5, 2026. Speculators, led by Managed Money, slightly increased their already significant net long position, absorbing selling from Commercials who modestly increased their net short hedges. The most notable feature is the state of market participation; overall open interest is at the lowest level in the provided historical data, suggesting a significant reduction in market activity and conviction following the price decline in late May. While speculative positioning remains bullish, the drop in overall liquidity is a key watchpoint.

Positioning (net, extremes vs recent weeks)

• Managed Money (Speculators): Net position expanded slightly to +67,773 contracts. While this is a strongly bullish stance, it remains below the recent peak net long of +88,820 contracts seen on February 27. The current position is one of the highest in the past several months, indicating sustained speculative belief in higher prices.
• Producer/Merchant (Commercials): Net position moved further into negative territory, standing at -85,343 contracts. This is a heavy net short, characteristic of producer hedging, but is less extreme than their peak short position of -118,381 contracts also seen in late February.
• Swap Dealers: Increased their net long position to +18,484 contracts. This represents the largest net long held by this category in the entire provided dataset, marking a significant bullish tilt.

Flows and week-over-week changes

The reporting week saw modest changes in net positioning, with more significant shifts occurring in the gross books.

• Managed Money: Added a net +711 contracts to their long position. This was a result of adding +1,092 new long contracts while also adding +381 short contracts. A significant addition of +4,252 spreading contracts suggests funds were actively rolling or adjusting calendar positions.
• Producers/Merchants: Increased their net short position by 2,411 contracts. This was driven by a substantial liquidation of long positions (-6,562 contracts), which outpaced their short covering (-4,151 contracts). This indicates a reduction in forward buying and/or adding new hedges.
• Swap Dealers: Were the most aggressive directional buyers this week, adding a net +3,969 contracts to their long exposure. This was composed of adding +2,429 long contracts while simultaneously cutting -1,540 short contracts.
• Non-reportable (Retail): This group was decidedly bearish, adding +3,352 short contracts against only +799 new longs, resulting in a net sale of 2,553 contracts.

Commercials vs speculators

The classic market structure persists: speculators are long against commercial short hedging.

• Speculators (Managed Money) are the primary holders of the market's net long risk at +67,773 contracts.
• Commercials (Producers/Merchants) are the primary short-side liquidity providers, with their -85,343 contract net short position reflecting hedging activity against physical inventories and forward sales.
• The divergence this week is the role of Swap Dealers, who are positioned alongside Managed Money with a historically large net long, indicating they are either facilitating client longs or taking a directional bullish view themselves.

Open interest and participation

• Total Open Interest stands at 302,492 contracts, an increase of just +1,557 contracts for the week.
• Crucially, this is the lowest level of open interest seen in the provided data, which dates back to December 2025. It is down dramatically from a peak of over 469,000 contracts in early February. This significant drop in participation suggests a major exit from the market, potentially following the sharp price decline in May, and implies lower liquidity conditions.
• Concentration among the largest traders remains moderate. The top 4 largest traders by net position hold 9.6% of the long side and 13.3% of the short side.

Price context

The price series provides valuable context for this week's positioning changes.

• The report covers the week ending June 5, which followed a significant price drop. The front-month contract fell from a high of ~$3.56 on May 15 to a low of ~$3.04 on May 29.
• During the reporting week, prices stabilized in a narrow range around the lows, closing at $3.0425 on June 5.
• The buying from Managed Money and, more significantly, Swap Dealers occurred during this price consolidation. This can be interpreted as "dip-buying," with these participants viewing the recent sell-off as a buying opportunity. The reduction of longs by Commercials may have been a reaction to the prior week's price drop.

Risks and watchpoints

• Low Open Interest: The collapsed open interest is a major red flag for liquidity. A market with a smaller participant base can be susceptible to exaggerated price swings (gaps) on new catalysts or capital flows. A sustained rise in open interest would be needed to signal a healthy return of market interest.
• Crowded Speculative Longs: Despite the price drop, Managed Money remains heavily net long. If prices fail to recover, this large position represents a significant risk of long liquidation, which could add further downside pressure.
• Swap Dealer Conviction: The record net long from Swap Dealers is a key bullish signal. Monitoring whether this group continues to add to their position or begins to unwind it will be critical for gauging market direction. Their buying into the recent low suggests strong conviction.