Gasoline RBOB Futures (NYMEX) - COT Report for the week ending May 22, 2026

Executive summary

For the week ending Tuesday, May 19, 2026, positioning data shows a cautious turn in sentiment among speculators. Managed Money trimmed their sizable net long position for the second consecutive week, primarily by adding new shorts as prices began to soften. In contrast, Commercials slightly reduced their net short hedge, while Swap Dealers made a notable move, significantly increasing their net long exposure. Overall open interest continued its multi-month decline, indicating capital outflow and potentially waning conviction in the bullish trend seen earlier in the year. The price action following the reporting period suggests that the observed speculative selling was a precursor to a more significant market downturn.

Positioning (net, extremes vs recent weeks)

• Managed Money (Speculators): The net long position fell to +61,674 contracts. This is a reduction from last week's +62,935 and is the smallest net long stance for this group in the last four weeks. While still representing a significant bullish bet, the recent trend shows a clear reduction in bullish exposure from the highs seen in February (e.g., +88,820 on Feb 27).
• Producer/Merchant (Commercials): This group holds a net short position of -78,613 contracts. This is a slight reduction in their short hedge compared to the prior week's -79,647. Commercial positioning remains heavily net short, consistent with their role as producers hedging future sales.
• Swap Dealers: Swap Dealers increased their net long position to +14,371 contracts. This is a substantial increase from prior weeks and represents a multi-week high in their net long exposure, positioning them as significant buyers during the period.

Flows and week-over-week changes

• Managed Money: The net long position decreased by 1,261 contracts. This was driven by a modest liquidation of long positions (-236 contracts) but more significantly by the addition of fresh shorts (+1,025 contracts), signaling a bearish shift in activity.
• Producer/Merchant: Commercials became less net short by 1,034 contracts. This was the result of a large-scale reduction in gross positioning on both sides, with long positions falling by 8,410 contracts and short positions falling by a larger 9,444 contracts.
• Swap Dealers: This category saw the most aggressive directional shift, increasing their net long position by 5,140 contracts. The change was almost entirely due to a sharp reduction in their short positions (-4,610 contracts).

Commercials vs speculators

The classic dynamic of speculators (Managed Money) being long against commercial hedgers remains firmly in place. However, the intensity of this positioning eased this week. Speculators took some profits and initiated new shorts, while Commercials lightened their hedge book slightly. The most interesting feature is the role of the Swap Dealers, who stepped in to absorb selling pressure, taking the other side of the trade and increasing their net length. This suggests they may have viewed prices as reaching an attractive level to buy or were facilitating client flows.

Open interest and participation

• Open Interest: Total open interest declined by 7,861 contracts to 319,846. This continues a broader trend of liquidation in the market, with open interest down significantly from levels above 460,000 contracts seen in February. A market where both price and open interest are falling is typically seen as weak, characterized by long liquidation rather than aggressive new short selling.
• Trader Count: The total number of reportable traders stands at 243, which is also lower than the ~270-280 levels from earlier in the year, corroborating the theme of reduced market participation.
• Concentration: The short side shows moderate concentration, with the largest 4 traders holding 13.5% of the net position. This indicates that a small number of large commercial entities dominate the hedging activity.

Price context

The positioning data was captured as of Tuesday, May 19th. During that reporting week, the front-month RBOB contract experienced choppy trading, peaking at 3.7053 on Friday the 15th before declining to close at 3.6697 on Tuesday the 19th. The reduction in Managed Money net length is consistent with this softening price action. Notably, in the three days following the snapshot (May 20-22), prices fell sharply to 3.4394. The selling pressure reflected in this report appears to have been the leading edge of a larger bearish move.

Risks and watchpoints

• Risk of Further Speculative Unwind: Despite the recent reduction, the Managed Money net long of +61,674 contracts remains substantial. The steep price drop after May 19th may have put many of these positions under pressure, creating a risk of further forced liquidation and a potential "washout" to the downside.
• Fading Market Momentum: The steady decline in open interest since February is a significant watchpoint. It suggests a lack of new capital to push prices higher and reinforces the view of a tired bull trend. A continued drop in OI alongside falling prices would confirm a weak technical backdrop.
• Swap Dealer Buying: The sharp increase in the Swap Dealer net long position is a key development. This group often acts as a counterparty and their willingness to absorb selling pressure could indicate that they see value at these levels. If this buying trend continues in subsequent reports, it could signal the formation of a near-term price floor.