Gasoline RBOB Futures COT Brief: Week Ending 2026-05-08

Executive summary

Speculative interest in Gasoline RBOB futures increased this week, with Managed Money adding to their already substantial net long position. This buying activity occurred despite a slight dip in price over the reporting period and a continued decline in overall market participation. Commercials, primarily producers and merchants, took the other side of this flow, increasing their net short hedges. The market is characterized by a classic standoff between bullish speculators and hedging commercials, but against a backdrop of falling open interest, which could signal a mature trend.

Positioning

• Managed Money (Speculators): Net long position expanded to +65,703 contracts (72,002 long vs. 6,299 short). This is an increase from last week's +61,800 net long and marks a continued bullish stance, though it remains below the peak net long of +88,820 seen in late February.
• Producer/Merchant (Commercials): Net short position deepened to -80,017 contracts (101,208 long vs. 181,225 short). This is a more significant net short than the prior week's -74,082 and reflects increased producer hedging. This level of shorting is substantial but still considerably less extreme than the -118,381 contract net short from late February.
• Swap Dealers: Flipped to a more significant net long position of +6,635 contracts, up from +5,192 contracts the week prior.
• Non-Reportable (Retail): Maintained a firm bullish bias, increasing their net long to +14,489 contracts.

Flows and week-over-week changes

• Managed Money was the primary buyer this week, increasing their net position by 3,903 contracts. This was driven by the addition of 3,199 new long contracts and a small reduction of 704 short contracts.
• Producer/Merchants were the most significant sellers, increasing their net short position by 5,935 contracts. This was a result of liquidating 4,592 long positions while adding 1,343 new shorts.
• Swap Dealers also added to the net long side of the market, buying a net 1,443 contracts.
• The overall theme was a transfer of risk, with speculators adding to bullish bets and commercials increasing their price hedges.

Commercials vs speculators

The classic divergence between commercial and speculative players intensified this week. - Speculative aggregate (Managed Money + Non-Reportable) holds a combined net long position of +80,192 contracts, signaling strong conviction in higher prices. - Commercial hedgers (Producer/Merchant) are the primary counterparty, holding a net short of -80,017 contracts. Their activity is consistent with producers and refiners locking in prices for future output. - The increase in both speculative longs and commercial shorts points to a market with deeply entrenched but opposing views on future price direction.

Open interest and participation

• Open Interest (OI) fell slightly by 1,119 contracts to a total of 312,115 contracts.
• This continues a significant trend of declining market participation since OI peaked near 470,000 contracts in early February. The current OI level is the lowest in the provided dataset.
• A falling OI during a period of generally rising prices can sometimes be a signal of a trend losing momentum, as it suggests that neither new buyers nor new sellers are entering the market with conviction.
• Concentration: The market shows moderate concentration. The largest 4 short-side traders account for 14.8% of net short positions, while the largest 8 account for 23.1%.

Price context

• The COT data, captured as of Tuesday but reported on Friday, May 8th, covers a week where the front-month contract close moved from $3.6103 (May 1) to $3.5372 (May 8).
• It is notable that Managed Money were net buyers during a week where price modestly declined, suggesting they viewed the dip as a buying opportunity to add to their positions.
• The broader price context since late December 2025 has been a powerful uptrend, with prices rallying from below $2.00 to over $3.50.
• The buildup of the Managed Money net long position through January and February coincided with a significant portion of this rally. However, the most recent leg up from ~$2.90 to current levels has not been accompanied by a new peak in speculative length, and has instead occurred alongside a steady drain in open interest.

Risks and watchpoints

• Crowded Speculative Long: The Managed Money net long position of +65,703 contracts is significant. While not at a record extreme for the period, it represents a crowded trade that is vulnerable to a sharp reversal if the price uptrend stalls, which could trigger a cascade of long liquidation.
• Declining Open Interest: The persistent decline in total market participation is a key watchpoint. A healthy, continuing trend is typically supported by rising open interest. The current divergence warrants caution and could indicate the uptrend is maturing or becoming exhausted.
• Commercial Selling vs. Spec Buying: The primary dynamic to watch is the tension between commercial hedging and speculative buying. A break in price in either direction could force one of these large groups to unwind their positions, likely accelerating the move.