Gasoline RBOB Futures: COT Brief for the Week Ending April 10, 2026

Executive summary

This report covers a week characterized by significant long liquidation from speculative traders amidst volatile price action. Managed Money cut their net long position to its lowest level since early February, selling into a price rally that occurred through the Tuesday reporting cut-off. This profit-taking preceded a sharp price drop later in the week. Concurrently, Commercials continued to reduce their net short (hedging) position, suggesting they are less bearish at current levels. Overall market participation contracted, as seen in the sharp decline in open interest, continuing a multi-week trend of de-risking and position squaring.

Positioning

• Managed Money (Speculators): Net long position fell to +59,177 contracts (63,811 long vs. 4,634 short). This is a substantial reduction from the prior week's +63,483 and marks the lowest net long holding for this group since early February. The position has been unwinding steadily from a recent peak of over +88,800 contracts in late February.
• Producer/Merchants (Commercials): Net short position shrank to -74,751 contracts (109,730 long vs. 184,481 short). This is the smallest net short position held by commercials in the provided dataset, indicating a significant reduction in hedging activity and a less bearish stance.
• Swap Dealers: Flipped to a small net long position of +731 contracts from a net short of -3,908 contracts in the prior week, driven primarily by a large reduction in short positions.

Flows and week-over-week changes

• Managed Money was the primary driver of the change in sentiment, liquidating 4,923 long contracts while also covering a minor 617 shorts. The net move was a reduction of their bullish stance by 4,306 contracts.
• Producer/Merchants continued their recent trend of buying back short hedges. They reduced short positions by a significant 6,352 contracts while also cutting longs by 3,839 contracts, resulting in their net short position shrinking by 2,513 contracts.
• Swap Dealers saw the largest net change, becoming more bullish by 4,639 contracts. This was almost entirely due to a 4,528 contract reduction in their short positions.
• Non-reportable (Retail) traders moved in the opposite direction of funds, adding a net long of 1,582 contracts (2,402 new longs vs. 820 new shorts).

Commercials vs speculators

The classic divergence between Commercial and Speculative positioning is on full display. - Speculators are taking profits and reducing bullish exposure after a strong price run-up over the past several months. The liquidation of nearly 5,000 long contracts suggests a waning conviction in further upside. - Commercials, conversely, are using price strength to reduce their hedges. Their net short position of -74,751 is down dramatically from over -118,000 contracts in late February. This signals that physical market players (refiners, distributors) see less need to hedge against a price decline, a structurally supportive sign.

Open interest and participation

• Open Interest (OI) fell by another 8,021 contracts to a new recent low of 320,497 contracts.
• This continues a dramatic trend of liquidation that began in late February when OI peaked at over 467,000 contracts. The steady decline in OI alongside speculative long-selling confirms that the recent market activity is dominated by position exits rather than new positioning.
• The total number of reportable traders also declined to 236 from 240 in the prior week, reinforcing the theme of contracting market participation.

Price context

The provided price series shows significant volatility during the reporting period. - The market rallied strongly on Monday, April 6 (closing at 3.3234) and held those gains through the Tuesday, April 7 cut-off for this report (closing at 3.3137). - The fact that Managed Money was a net seller during this two-day rally is a key takeaway, indicating clear profit-taking behavior. - The positioning changes presaged the sharp price decline that occurred after the reporting period, with the front contract falling to 2.9432 on Wednesday, April 8, before recovering slightly to close the week at 3.029. The speculative selling captured in this report appears to have accelerated mid-week.

Risks and watchpoints

• Risk of Further Liquidation: While significantly reduced, the Managed Money net long position of +59,177 contracts remains historically large. Should prices continue to falter, there is substantial room for further long-selling pressure.
• Uncrowded Short Side: Managed Money short positions are exceptionally low at just 4,634 contracts. This implies there is little fuel for a "short squeeze" rally. A sustained down-move would require the initiation of fresh shorts, not just long liquidation.
• Watch the Commercials: The consistent reduction of the Commercial net short has been a key supportive pillar. A reversal of this trend, where Commercials begin to aggressively add new short hedges, would be a strong bearish signal that the fundamental backdrop is weakening.
• Open Interest Stabilization: A bottoming and subsequent rise in open interest would be a crucial signal that the current phase of liquidation is ending and new capital is re-entering the market, which would be necessary for a sustainable new trend to develop.