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Crude Oil WTI COT — Week of October 9, 2026

Crude Oil WTI — COT Positioning Report: Week Ended October 9, 2026

Executive summary

  • Managed Money Net Position: Managed money flipped back to net short at -4,534 contracts (18,871 long vs. 23,405 short), down from net long +2,702 contracts the prior week (2026-10-02). Speculative participation in Crude Oil WTI on ICE Europe remains subdued relative to commercial scale.
  • Commercial Hedging Dynamics: Producer/merchants expanded their net long posture significantly, rising by +10,559 contracts week-over-week to +85,490 contracts (423,871 long vs. 338,381 short), driven by an aggressive addition of gross longs (+23,520 contracts).
  • Swap Dealers: Swap dealers reduced net short exposure slightly to -75,727 contracts (from -73,263 contracts) with gross long cuts of 2,570 contracts.
  • Market Activity: Open interest increased by 9,522 contracts to 752,148 contracts, remaining within its recent cyclical trough (734k–754k contracts) compared to peaks above 870k contracts observed earlier in the year.
  • Price Backdrop: Front-month CL closed at $91.01/bbl on October 9, 2026, slightly down from $91.26 on October 2, continuing a consolidation phase after touching an annual peak of $100.49 on September 15.

Positioning (net, extremes vs recent weeks)

Trader Category Long Positions Short Positions Spreading Net Position (2026-10-09) Net Position (2026-10-02) WoW Change in Net
Producer/Merchant 423,871 338,381 — +85,490 +74,931 +10,559
Swap Dealers 9,787 85,514 60,960 -75,727 -73,263 -2,464
Managed Money 18,871 23,405 23,569 -4,534 -2,698* (see note) -1,836
Other Reportables 51,469 59,381 147,276 -7,912 -3,042 -4,870
Non-Reportable 16,345 13,662 — +2,683 +4,072 -1,389

*Note on Managed Money 2026-10-02: 19,556 long vs. 22,254 short = -2,698 net.

Historical Context and Extremes

  • Managed Money Net Position: At -4,534 contracts, managed money positioning remains deeply compressed compared to early 2026 extremes (which reached net shorts as deep as -43,169 on 2026-01-09). The current level shows low directional speculative conviction on ICE Europe, hovering between modest net long and modest net short over the last two months.
  • Producer/Merchant Net Long: Net producer length at +85,490 contracts sits well below the highs of March 2026 (+137,259 contracts on 2026-03-27), but represents a strong recovery from the late-August low of +88,782 contracts and mid-September levels (+95,807 contracts on 2026-09-18).
  • Swap Dealer Net Short: At -75,727 contracts, swap dealer short exposure is near the upper-middle of its 2026 range (-73k to -103k contracts).

Flows and week-over-week changes

Total open interest rose by 9,522 contracts (+1.28%) to 752,148.

  • Managed Money:
    • Gross longs declined by 685 contracts to 18,871.
    • Gross shorts rose by 1,151 contracts to 23,405.
    • Spreading rose modestly by 405 contracts to 23,569.
    • Overall net swing: -1,836 contracts (bearish flow).
  • Producer/Merchant:
    • Massive gross expansion on both sides: Longs added 23,520 contracts; Shorts added 12,961 contracts.
    • Overall net swing: +10,559 contracts (bullish commercial skew).
  • Swap Dealers:
    • Longs liquidated by 2,570 contracts; Shorts fell by 106 contracts.
    • Spreading added 461 contracts.
    • Overall net swing: -2,464 contracts (increasing net short).
  • Other Reportables:
    • Sizable de-risking: Gross longs dropped 5,982 contracts, shorts fell 1,112 contracts, and spreading dropped by 5,143 contracts.

Commercials vs speculators

Commercial interests continue to dominate the ICE Crude Oil WTI footprint, accounting for the vast majority of direct balance sheet risk:

  • Commercial Share: Producer/merchants hold 56.4% of long open interest and 45.0% of short open interest. Combined with swap dealers (1.3% long, 11.4% short), commercial and quasi-commercial hedgers control over 57% of gross open interest.
  • Speculative Footprint: Managed money accounts for just 2.5% of long open interest and 3.1% of short open interest (with 3.1% in calendar/locational spreads). Speculators show minimal gross appetite to push momentum at current $90+ price levels.
  • Divergence: While managed money trimmed exposure and drifted slightly net short (-4,534 contracts), commercial producers absorbed flow on the long side (+23,520 contracts), signaling strong merchant/refiner pricing activity or hedge adjustments as flat prices pulled back from September's highs.

Open interest and participation

  • Total Open Interest: 752,148 contracts (+9,522 WoW). This marks the second weekly increase from the autumn low of 734,302 contracts on September 25, 2026.
  • Trader Breadth: Active reporting entities dropped slightly to 111 total traders from 113 the prior week:
    • Managed money participants remain minimal: only 4 longs and 11 shorts (with 10 spreading).
    • Producer/merchants dominate participant counts with 36 longs and 36 shorts.
  • Concentration:
    • The largest 4 traders hold 25.8% of net long and 21.0% of net short positions.
    • The largest 8 traders account for 34.2% of net long and 27.8% of net short positions.
    • On a gross basis, the top 8 traders control 50.5% of long positions and 45.2% of shorts, illustrating moderate-to-high institutional concentration.

Price context

Price Overview (Front Contract: CL):
2026-09-04: $88.18
2026-09-15: $100.49 (Period High)
2026-09-25: $92.44
2026-10-02: $91.26
2026-10-09: $91.01 (Latest Close)
  • After a strong late-summer rally from the $72–$75 area in early August to break $100/bbl on September 15 ($100.49), front-month CL has spent the last three weeks consolidating in a tight band around $89.00–$93.00.
  • During this retracement, total open interest stabilized around 740k–752k, avoiding any major cascade in speculative liquidation.
  • The weekly price change into the October 9 as-of date was essentially flat (-$0.25 WoW from $91.26 to $91.01), aligning with the lack of directional conviction in Managed Money flows.

Risks and watchpoints

  • Managed Money Complacency / Low Conviction: With managed money holding just 18.8k gross longs and 23.4k gross shorts across 15 directional traders, systematic trend followers and macro hedge funds are largely sitting out of this contract. Any catalyst pulling institutional flow back could drive sharp non-linear price movement given low speculative positioning depth.
  • Commercial Gross Long Additions: The sudden addition of +23,520 producer/merchant long contracts amidst flat prices suggests either aggressive consumer/refiner hedging or fixed-for-floating basis balancing against CME CL positioning. Continued commercial accumulation provides a structural floor around the $88–$90 band.
  • Concentration Vulnerability: The top 4 gross longs hold 33.3% of all long contracts. Changes in hedging policies by top-tier physical merchants could introduce outsized liquidity shocks.