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Crude Oil WTI COT — Week of September 25, 2026

Crude Oil WTI COT Report — Week of September 25, 2026

Executive summary

  • Managed Money Short Covering: Managed money accounts reduced gross short positions by 5,186 contracts to 25,031 while holding longs virtually flat at 20,197 (+2). This narrowed their net short position to -4,834 contracts, marking the least net short speculative posture observed in the entire historical dataset.
  • Commercial Net Long Retrenches: Producer/merchant participants trimmed net long exposure by 17,450 contracts to +78,357 contracts (Long: 393,230; Short: 314,873), driven by a 11,317 contract reduction in gross longs and an addition of 6,133 gross shorts.
  • Open Interest Contraction: Aggregate open interest fell by 19,579 contracts (-2.60%) to 734,302 contracts—the lowest level recorded across the multi-month series.
  • Price Consolidation Off Highs: Front-month CL settled at $92.29/bbl on September 25, 2026, consolidating following its September 15 peak above $100/bbl ($100.49/bbl).

Positioning (net, extremes vs recent weeks)

Category Gross Long Gross Short Spreading Net Position Prior Week Net Net Change
Managed Money 20,197 25,031 24,255 -4,834 -10,022 +5,188
Producer/Merchant 393,230 314,873 — +78,357 +95,807 -17,450
Swap Dealers 11,613 85,432 59,472 -73,819 -81,101 +7,282
Other Reportables 52,323 54,037 158,887 -1,714 -7,823 +6,109
Nonreportable 14,325 12,315 — +2,010 +3,139 -1,129
  • Managed Money at Multi-Month Highs: At -4,834 contracts net short, managed money positioning is at its most bullish / least short level across the available data window (compared to extreme net short levels exceeding -45,000 contracts in April 2026).
  • Swap Dealers Covering: Swap dealers trimmed net short positioning to -73,819 contracts from -81,101 the prior week, down from peak net short exposure exceeding -102,000 contracts in April 2026.
  • Producer/Merchant Moderation: Commercial net long exposure of +78,357 contracts is down substantially from spring highs that exceeded +151,000 contracts (April 3, 2026).

Flows and week-over-week changes

  • Managed Money:
    • Gross longs edged up by +2 contracts to 20,197 (2.8% of open interest).
    • Gross shorts fell by -5,186 contracts to 25,031 (3.4% of open interest).
    • Spreading positions expanded by +4,053 contracts to 24,255 (3.3% of open interest).
  • Producer/Merchant:
    • Gross longs declined by -11,317 contracts to 393,230 (53.6% of open interest).
    • Gross shorts increased by +6,133 contracts to 314,873 (42.9% of open interest).
  • Swap Dealers:
    • Added +2,816 long contracts to 11,613.
    • Covered -4,466 short contracts to 85,432.
    • Spreading declined by -2,296 contracts to 59,472.
  • Other Reportables:
    • Gross longs rose +3,323 to 52,323; gross shorts fell -2,786 to 54,037; spreading fell sharply by -12,592 to 158,887.

Commercials vs speculators

  • Commercials (Producer/Merchants & Swap Dealers):
    • Combined commercial positioning remains net long (+4,538 contracts), as Producer/Merchant net longs (+78,357) slightly exceed Swap Dealer net shorts (-73,819).
    • Producer/merchants reduced buying and initiated short hedges, consistent with commercial selling/hedging into elevated price levels relative to H1 2026.
  • Speculators (Managed Money & Other Reportables):
    • Speculative categories remain slightly net short in the aggregate (Managed Money at -4,834; Other Reportables at -1,714).
    • The primary spec flow was short covering rather than fresh long additions, as Managed Money gross longs held steady at 20,197.

Open interest and participation

  • Total Open Interest: 734,302 contracts, dropping -19,579 contracts (-2.60%) week-over-week. This continues a steady descent from the May 2026 high of 875,230 contracts.
  • Trader Breadth: Total reporting traders stood at 113, down from 137 in early 2026 and 122–128 in mid-spring.
    • Managed Money trader counts: 5 long, 11 short, 11 spreading.
    • Producer/Merchant counts: 37 long, 35 short.
  • Concentration Ratios:
    • Top 4 gross long traders hold 33.3% of open interest; top 4 gross short hold 31.8%.
    • Top 8 gross long traders hold 51.2%; top 8 gross short hold 44.6%.
    • Top 4 net long: 27.3%; top 4 net short: 19.4%.
    • Top 8 net long: 35.6%; top 8 net short: 26.7%.

Price context (only using provided series)

2026-01-26: $59.82
2026-03-13: $77.76
2026-05-19: $87.08
2026-06-24: $68.62 (Summer trough)
2026-09-10: $99.56
2026-09-15: $100.49 (Series high)
2026-09-18: $95.48
2026-09-22: $89.85 (Weekly low)
2026-09-25: $92.29 (Current close)
  • WTI crude oil advanced from low-$60s in January and a summer low of $68.62 (June 24) to a peak of $100.49 on September 15.
  • Over the reporting week (September 18 to September 25), CL traded in a $89.85–$95.48 range before closing at $92.29, down -$3.19 (-3.34%) from the prior Friday close.
  • The reduction in total open interest alongside declining prices suggests long liquidation and general de-risking following the failure to hold above $100/bbl.

Risks and watchpoints

  • Speculative Exhaustion via Short-Covering: Managed money gross shorts (25,031) are near their lowest levels of the year (having stood at 53,467 in April). Because recent buying was driven primarily by covering rather than fresh long deployment, upward speculative momentum may diminish without new long inflows.
  • Commercial Hedging Activity: Producer/merchant gross shorts rose by +6,133 contracts to 314,873, signaling increased producer hedging into the $90+ pricing environment.
  • Low Open Interest / Liquidity: Aggregate open interest at 734,302 is the series low, which can exacerbate price volatility on unexpected physical or macro shocks.