Crude Oil WTI - COT Brief for Week Ending April 24, 2026

Executive summary

This week's data reveals a market in the midst of a powerful short squeeze. A sharp rally in WTI prices was primarily fueled by significant short-covering from both Managed Money and Swap Dealer accounts. Speculative net short positioning was reduced considerably, though Managed Money remains net bearish overall. Producer/Merchants, the commercial hedgers, took the other side, modestly increasing their substantial net long position. Critically, the rally occurred alongside a sharp decline in total open interest, suggesting a lack of new bullish conviction and pointing to position closing rather than new buying as the primary driver. The sustainability of this price move is questionable without the participation of fresh long-side capital.

Positioning

• Managed Money: The net position shifted from -45,234 contracts to -40,971 contracts. While this is a reduction in bearishness, it remains a significant net short stance and is much more bearish than positions held earlier in the year (e.g., -19,479 contracts on Feb 20).
• Producer/Merchant: This commercial category increased its net long position to +127,932 contracts from +125,675 contracts last week. This is a historically strong net long position, indicating robust producer hedging activity.
• Swap Dealers: This group remains heavily net short at -85,108 contracts. However, this is a significant reduction from their peak net short of -100,677 contracts seen on April 10, marking a major de-risking from the short side.

Flows and week-over-week changes

• Managed Money: The shift in the net position was driven almost exclusively by short-covering. Speculators bought back 4,312 short contracts while trimming a minor 49 long contracts. This is not new bullish buying, but rather an exit from bearish bets.
• Producer/Merchant: Commercials were net buyers, adding a net 2,257 contracts to their long position (longs -1,969, shorts -4,226).
• Swap Dealers: This category saw the most dramatic change, covering a massive 11,106 short contracts while adding only 390 long contracts. This represents a significant reduction in their short exposure.
• Other Reportables & Non-Reportables: "Other Reportables" were significant net sellers, liquidating a large number of longs (-2,332) and adding new shorts (+13,891). "Non-reportables" (small speculators) were also net sellers.

Commercials vs speculators

The classic positioning dynamic persists, with commercial hedgers (Producers) holding a large net long position against speculators (Managed Money) holding a net short position. This week, however, the speculators were forced to reduce their bearish bets in the face of a rising market. Producers absorbed some of this selling, increasing their hedge book at higher prices. The key takeaway is the capitulation of short-side speculators, while long-side speculators remain on the sidelines.

Open interest and participation

• Open Interest: Total open interest fell sharply by 29,204 contracts to 842,828. A strong price rally occurring on declining open interest is a bearish divergence. It indicates that the rally was fueled by participants closing out existing short positions, not by new money entering the market to establish long positions.
• Participation & Concentration: The total number of traders remains stable at 128. Concentration among the largest traders is significant but has not changed materially. The top 4 largest traders hold 28.4% of the net long position and 26.0% of the net short position.

Price context

The provided price series shows a dramatic rally during the reporting week. After closing the prior week at $84.00 (on April 17), the front-month WTI contract surged, hitting a high of $97.00 before closing the reporting period at $94.29 on April 24. This powerful +12.2% move in the underlying price corresponds directly with the aggressive short-covering seen across speculative categories in the COT data.

Risks and watchpoints

• Rally Sustainability: The primary risk is that this rally is unsustainable. Having been fueled by short-covering, it now requires new buying to continue its momentum. The lack of new long interest from Managed Money is a major red flag.
• Open Interest: A key watchpoint will be the direction of open interest in the coming weeks. If prices continue to rise and open interest begins to increase, it would signal that new capital is entering, validating the uptrend. If price stalls and open interest continues to fall or stagnates, it would reinforce the short-squeeze narrative and increase the risk of a sharp reversal.
• Producer Positioning: The large Producer/Merchant net long position of +127,932 contracts provides a solid base of underlying demand for futures, but this group is typically reactive (hedging production) rather than proactive in driving price trends.