Corn Futures Positioning Brief: Week Ending February 13, 2026

Executive summary

This week's report highlights a significant divergence in positioning. Managed Money aggressively covered short positions, reducing their net short stance considerably. This bullish flow was more than offset by Producer/Merchants (Commercials), who ramped up hedging activity by adding a substantial number of new shorts. This action pushed the Commercial net short position to its largest level in the recent reporting period. Swap Dealers absorbed this commercial selling, increasing their own large net long position. Despite the dynamic positioning shifts, overall open interest saw a slight decline, and the price remained rangebound, suggesting a market in equilibrium where speculative short-covering is meeting strong producer hedging.

Positioning

• Managed Money: Funds hold a net short position of -57,493 contracts. This is a significant reduction from last week's -80,613 net short and is well off the recent extreme of -90,658 contracts seen in mid-January.
• Producer/Merchant (Commercials): This group is now net short -239,098 contracts, their largest net short position in the provided multi-week history. This extends a trend of increasing hedging from the commercial side.
• Swap Dealers: This category holds a very large net long position of +276,436 contracts, also a new high for the reporting period. They continue to be the primary counterparty to commercial shorts.
• Nonreportable (Retail): Smaller traders are slightly net short at -19,008 contracts.

Flows and week-over-week changes

The most significant activity this week was a rotation between speculators and hedgers. - Managed Money: The primary driver of their net position change was aggressive short-covering. They bought back 22,577 short contracts while adding only a nominal 543 longs. This resulted in their net position becoming more bullish by 23,120 contracts. - Producer/Merchant: Commercials displayed a strong bearish bias, adding 45,715 new short contracts against only 13,885 new longs. This increased their net short position by a substantial 31,830 contracts. - Swap Dealers: They stepped in as buyers, adding 18,000 long contracts and increasing their net long exposure by 16,252 contracts for the week.

Commercials vs speculators

The classic divergence between hedgers and speculators is on full display. - Commercials are using the current price levels to sell forward their expected production, as evidenced by their growing net short position. Their willingness to add 45.7k new shorts in a single week indicates a strong view that prices are adequate for hedging. - Speculators (Managed Money) are reducing their bearish bets. The large short-covering suggests a belief that downside momentum may be stalling or that the risk/reward of holding large short positions has diminished. This tug-of-war is keeping the market balanced for now. The Swap Dealers are facilitating this by warehousing the risk from Commercial sellers.

Open interest and participation

• Open Interest: Total open interest decreased slightly by 4,870 contracts to stand at 1,736,012. This minor decline amidst significant positioning shifts suggests that the dominant activity was existing shorts (Managed Money) closing positions by buying from new shorts (Commercials).
• Participation: The total number of traders remains high at 779. The number of Managed Money short-holders decreased from 91 to 88, consistent with the short-covering flow.
• Concentration: The market remains relatively unconcentrated. The largest 4 traders account for 9.0% of the net long and 7.0% of the net short positions, figures which do not suggest an outsized influence by a small number of participants.

Price context

The price series provides valuable context for this week's positioning changes. The COT reporting period covers the week ending Tuesday, February 10th. - During that week, the front-month Corn contract saw a brief rally to 434.50 on February 6th before pulling back to 428.50 by the close of February 10th. - It appears that Managed Money used the relative price stability to cover shorts, while Commercials likely used the pop above 430 as an opportunity to add to their hedge books. - Since the close of the reporting period, the price has recovered modestly to 431.25 as of February 13th. The market remains well within the range established after the sharp price drop in mid-January.

Risks and watchpoints

• Commercial Selling Pressure: The primary headwind for prices is the aggressive and growing short position held by Commercials. A significant price rally would likely be difficult to sustain as long as this producer selling continues at such a strong pace.
• Speculative Dry Powder: While Managed Money has reduced its short exposure, it remains net short. This cohort has significant capacity to either continue covering shorts (which would be supportive of prices) or re-establish a larger bearish position should fundamentals warrant.
• Swap Dealer Concentration: Swap Dealers now hold a historically large net long position of +276k contracts. While this is a function of their role as counterparties to commercial hedgers, such a large position could become a source of selling pressure if they needed to liquidate in a falling market.
• Range Break: The key technical watchpoint will be a break of the recent price range. A move below the January lows could embolden speculative shorts, while a sustained break above the 435-440 area could force more short-covering and potentially slow the pace of producer hedging.