Cocoa Futures COT Report: Week Ending July 17, 2026

Executive summary

This report covers positioning in ICE Cocoa futures for the week ending July 17, 2026. Speculative funds (Managed Money) extended their bearish stance, driven primarily by significant long liquidation. Commercial participants (Producer/Merchant) increased their hedging activity on both sides of the market but became slightly less net short. Swap Dealers, who hold a very large net long position, were notable sellers during the week. Overall market participation increased, with open interest rising by over 5,700 contracts, indicating new capital is entering the market with conviction on both sides.

Positioning

• Managed Money: Flipped to a net short position of -7,114 contracts. This is a notable shift from their nearly flat positioning in early 2026 and marks a bearish turn, though it is less extreme than the -18,099 net short position seen in late June 2026.
• Producer/Merchant (Commercials): Remained heavily net short at -21,487 contracts. This is a typical hedging posture for this category and is consistent with levels seen over the past several months.
• Swap Dealers: Maintained a very large net long position of +30,657 contracts. While this is down from the prior week, it remains the dominant long position in the market and represents a significant risk concentration.
• Other Reportables & Non-Reportables: Other Reportables hold a modest net short of -3,470 contracts, while Non-Reportable traders (often retail) hold a small net long of +1,414 contracts.

Flows and week-over-week changes

• Managed Money: Were net sellers of 1,250 contracts. This was the result of aggressive long liquidation (-3,832 contracts) that far outpaced short covering (-2,582 contracts), signaling a reduction in bullish conviction. Spreading activity was also very high (+4,911 contracts), likely related to contract roll activity.
• Producer/Merchant: Were net buyers of 2,038 contracts. They added significantly to both sides of the market, increasing longs by +7,406 contracts and shorts by +5,368 contracts. This suggests active hedging from both producers and consumers.
• Swap Dealers: Were the largest net sellers, reducing their position by 4,240 contracts. The selling was driven by a combination of closing out long positions (-3,162 contracts) and adding new shorts (+1,078 contracts).

Commercials vs speculators

The classic positioning dynamic is on display in the Cocoa market. - Commercials (Producers/Merchants) are the largest net short holders (-21,487 contracts), using the futures market to hedge physical cocoa production and inventories against price declines. - Speculators are split. Managed Money holds a net short position (-7,114 contracts), betting on or hedging against lower prices. In contrast, Swap Dealers are the primary counterparty to the commercials, holding a substantial net long of +30,657 contracts and taking on the price risk. - This week, the divergence was clear: Commercials added net length while Managed Money added net shorts.

Open interest and participation

• Open Interest: Rose by a healthy 5,777 contracts to a total of 203,748. This is a historically high level of participation for the provided data period (which dates back to late 2025) and confirms that new capital flowed into the market this week.
• Trader Concentration: The market shows moderate concentration. The largest 4 traders account for 12.5% of the long side and 13.4% of the short side on a net basis. For the largest 8 traders, this rises to 22.3% (long) and 22.8% (short). This indicates that while a few large players are influential, the market is not overly dominated.

Price context

Price series data was not provided for this reporting period. Therefore, a direct correlation between the positioning changes and recent price action cannot be established from the available data.

Risks and watchpoints

• Speculative Selling: The aggressive liquidation of longs by Managed Money is a key bearish watchpoint. If this trend continues, it could exert further downward pressure on prices.
• Swap Dealer Overhang: The +30,657 contract net long position held by Swap Dealers is a major market feature. Any significant unwinding of this position would be a major source of selling and could accelerate a market decline. Their net selling this week bears close monitoring.
• Commercial Buying: The fact that Commercials were net buyers, adding longs more aggressively than shorts, could suggest they see value at current or recent price levels. This could provide a source of underlying support for the market.
• High Open Interest: The elevated and rising open interest suggests strong convictions on both sides of the market. This creates the potential for heightened volatility should a catalyst force one side to exit their positions rapidly.