Cocoa Futures Commitments of Traders - Week Ending 2026-02-13

Executive summary

This report covers the week ending February 13, 2026. Positioning in the Cocoa futures market shows increasing conviction among participants, with Open Interest rising to the highest level in the provided seven-week period. Managed Money extended its net short position to a new recent extreme, signaling growing bearish sentiment from this speculative group. Conversely, Swap Dealers significantly increased their already large net long position, becoming the dominant long holder. Commercials remain heavily net short, consistent with producer hedging, and their net short position is near its recent peak. The market is defined by a clear divergence: bearish institutional speculators (Managed Money) versus structurally long Swap Dealers and hedging producers.

Positioning (net, extremes vs recent weeks)

• Managed Money: Net short position deepened to -11,494 contracts (21,263 long vs 32,757 short). This is the largest net short position for this category in the last seven weeks of available data, surpassing the previous week's -10,330 contracts.
• Producer/Merchant (Commercials): Maintained a significant net short stance of -15,352 contracts (38,801 long vs 54,153 short). This is a historically large short position for the observed period, just slightly smaller than last week's seven-week record of -15,568 contracts.
• Swap Dealers: Expanded their substantial net long position to +32,945 contracts (34,222 long vs 1,277 short). This represents a new multi-week high, extending a trend of steady accumulation since early January when their net long was just +6,811 contracts.
• Nonreportable (Small Speculators): Hold a modest net long position of +1,353 contracts (11,256 long vs 9,903 short).

Flows and week-over-week changes

The reporting week saw a net increase in market participation, with key flows highlighting the growing divergence between speculative groups. - Managed Money was a net seller of 1,164 contracts. This was achieved by liquidating 816 long contracts while simultaneously adding 348 new short positions, indicating a clear bearish tilt in their activity. - Swap Dealers were the largest net buyers, adding 3,416 contracts to their net position. The move was driven almost entirely by the addition of 3,166 new long contracts. - Producer/Merchants were slight net buyers of 216 contracts. This was the result of adding both new longs (+1,510) and new shorts (+1,294), suggesting active hedging from both consumers and producers. - Other Reportables were significant net sellers, reducing their net long exposure by selling 834 long contracts and adding 2,440 short contracts.

Commercials vs speculators

The classic positioning dynamic is in place, with Commercials heavily short and speculators providing the long-side liquidity, but with a notable twist. - Commercials (Producers/Merchants) are positioned as expected for a producer-dominated commodity, with a large net short of -15,352 contracts. This suggests producers are actively using the futures market to lock in prices for their crops. - The speculative side is starkly divided. Managed Money, often seen as the primary trend-following speculators, is firmly net short at -11,494 contracts. - In contrast, Swap Dealers hold a massive net long of +32,945 contracts. Their role often involves offsetting positions from the OTC market or providing index-linked products to clients, making their position less purely directional than that of Managed Money. They are the primary counterparty to the commercial shorts.

Open interest and participation

• Total Open Interest (OI) rose by 2,544 contracts to 162,798 contracts. This marks the highest level of OI in the seven-week data series, continuing a steady climb from 119,328 contracts in late December. The rising OI alongside building net positions confirms that new capital is entering the market rather than just a repositioning of existing participants.
• The total number of traders was 200, which is relatively stable.
• Concentration among the largest traders is moderate. The top four traders by gross position hold 13.8% of the longs and 14.0% of the shorts, figures that do not suggest undue influence by a small number of players.

Price context

• Price series data was not provided for the reporting period. Therefore, it is not possible to directly correlate the observed changes in positioning with specific price movements during the week. The analysis is based exclusively on the Commitments of Traders data.

Risks and watchpoints

• Managed Money Short Extreme: The Managed Money net short position is at a seven-week peak. Such a crowded trade can be vulnerable to a sharp reversal. Any bullish catalyst could trigger a short-covering rally as these participants rush to exit their positions.
• Dominant Swap Dealer Long: The size and continued growth of the Swap Dealer net long position is a key market feature. While often less price-sensitive, an unwinding of this +32,945 contract position for any reason would have a significant market impact.
• Continued Rise in Open Interest: The persistent increase in market participation suggests growing conviction on both sides of the market. This can lead to increased volatility as these entrenched positions are tested.
• Heavy Commercial Hedging: The large Producer/Merchant short position implies that producers find current price levels attractive for selling forward. This hedging flow can act as resistance to further price appreciation. A reversal of this behavior (e.g., buying back hedges due to crop concerns) would be a strong bullish signal.